Padding

If you do a quick Google search for how to get better at estimating software tasks, you'll find multiple people recommending the way they do it. Some of these recommendations are some variation of the following ideas:

  • Come up with your estimate and then multiply this number by 2 (or 3, or even 4!)
  • Come up with your estimate and increase the unit of time you used. For example, if you came up with 2 days, your final estimate should be 2 weeks. If you came up with 4 weeks, your final estimate should be 4 months, and so on.

The principle behind these techniques (and any of their variations) is to add padding to the estimate to cover for unknowns. Despite well intentioned, doing this doesn't really make you better at estimation. It doesn't make your estimates more accurate either, and there's probably an argument about whether this is even ethical.

Would your client understand and agree with the way you are deciding how long things will take? If you feel the need to hide from your customer the way you come up with estimates, then you probably have more work to do on this front.

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